Oyo State is one of Nigeria’s most politically significant states, especially in the South West region of the country. Barely a year after the 2023 gubernatorial elections, the political atmosphere is already thick with anticipation and speculation for the next election cycle. Governor Seyi Makinde, who has been at the helm of affairs since 2019, will be completing his second term, and a lingering question on the mind of concerned people is: who will succeed him? The race to the Agodi Government House for Oyo 2027 is expected to be intense, given the state’s rich political history and the high stakes involved.
Right from time, Oyo State has always been a battleground for political heavyweights. It is a state where politics is often characterized by a mix of grassroots mobilization and the influence of political godfathers. However, the godfatherism factor proved to be eliminated a second time when the incumbent governor pulled a populist surprise to clinch his second term. Following its creation in 1976, the first gubernatorial election in Oyo state was conducted in 1979. The election was contested by five political parties but the UPN and NPN were the most prominent. The UPN fielded Chief Bola Ige against the NPN’s Chief Richard Akinjide and Bola Ige won to become the first Executive Governor of Oyo.
After spending a term in office, Bola Ige decided to seek re-election in the 1983 gubernatorial election under his party, the UPN. Unlike in 1979 when Bola Ige had to contest with Chief Richard Akinjide, he had to contest the 1983 gubernatorial election with Chief Victor Omololu Olunloyo, a co-indigene of Ibadan who represented the NPN. Bola Ige through the use of power of incumbency secured his party’s ticket to contest the election. Unlike in 1979 when Bola Ige had the support of the party’s godfathers, political bigwigs in the state before the 1983 elections withdrew their support for Bola Ige accusing him of disloyalty. Many political elites including Chiefs Adisa Akinloye, Richard Akinjide, Busari Adelakun and Lamidi Adedibu threw their support for Omololu Olunloyo for victory in the election.
With this, Bola Ige appeared to have lost the election but vowed to secure victory even without his godfathers. The period leading to the 1983 gubernatorial election in Oyo state was particularly tense. Many political analysts and supporters of different political parties envisaged an outbreak of election violence. Violence broke out in most parts of the state as had been envisaged and predicted. This was ostensibly as a result of popular reaction against perceived rigged gubernatorial elections which favoured the N.P.N. candidate in a staunch U.P.N. State. After series of electoral litigations, Dr. Victor Omololu Olunloyo became the substantive Governor of Oyo state. However, barely three months in office, the military coup of 31st December, 1983 terminated his administration.
As part of plans to relinquish power to a democratically elected government, the then General Babangida regime in 1991 established two political parties. These political parties were the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the National Republican Convention (NRC). The 1991 governorship election was a contest between Chief Kolapo Ishola of SDP and Alhaji Yekini Adeojo of NRC. With the support of notable political elites in the state, notably: Chief Lamidi Adedibu and Chief Rashidi Adewolu Ladoja. Chief Kolapo Ishola emerged as the winner. The administration of Kolapo Ishola as the third Governor of Oyo state was short-lived. It lasted barely 22 months due to the palace coup led by General Sani Abacha in November, 1993 which led to the abortion of the Third Republic.
To fully grasp the significance of the 2027 elections, it is essential to look back at the history of gubernatorial elections in Oyo State since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999. The return to democracy in 1999 saw the emergence of Lamidi Adesina of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) as the governor of Oyo State. He was a teacher prior to his entry into politics and his administration focused on education and infrastructural development. However, the Ibadan-born politician’s tenure was marked by challenges such as intra-party conflicts. This was among the factors that led to his loss when he tried seeking reelection in 2003.
The 2003 elections witnessed the rise of Rashidi Ladoja of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), who defeated Lam Adesina and chased the AD out of the Agodi Government House. Despite being an engineer, Ladoja’s tenure was tumultuous. This was primarily as a result of the feud with his godfather, the 001 of Oyo state politics in that period, Lamidi Adedibu, the strong man of Ibadan politics who was fondly referred to as the Father of the PDP by President Olusegun Obasanjo. His administration was severely interrupted and led to an impeachment crisis in January 2006, although he was later reinstated by the court in December.
Following the political instability of Ladoja’s tenure, the 2007 elections brought in Christopher Adebayo Alao-Akala, his former deputy. Alao-Akala clinched the guber ticket against a serving senator of the Oyo South district, Abiola Ajimobi. Known to be popular for grassroots involvement, his tenure was characterized by efforts to improve infrastructure and social services in the state. Despite this, his tenure was marred by violence in the Oyo political scene.
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The 2011 elections marked the return of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), with Abiola Ajimobi emerging as governor. With Adedibu the godfather out of the picture, Ajimobi slugged it out with Akala to wrest power back from the PDP. Ajimobi’s administration was noted for its focus on urban renewal and infrastructural development, particularly in the state capital, Ibadan. He was re-elected in 2015 under the banner of the All Progressives Congress (APC) after the merger of the ACN with CPC, ANPP and a factional APGA to form the APC. Ajimobi made history by becoming the first Oyo State governor to win re-election ‘The Koseleri Governor’, a feat that eluded his predecessors. He defeated two former governors, Rashidi Ladoja (Accord Party) and Alao-Akala (Labour Party), a two-term senator, Teslim Folarin (PDP), and a budding Ibadan politician, Seyi Makinde (SDP) to return to the Agodi Government House. His second term, however, was met with mixed reactions, with some praising his infrastructural initiatives and others criticizing his handling of labor relations with the state civil service.
The 2019 elections were significant as they saw the defeat of the APC and the emergence of Seyi Makinde of the PDP as the governor. Makinde’s victory was seen as a major shift in Oyo State politics, especially given his opposition status and his emphasis on transparency and accountability. His administration has since been marked by efforts to improve education, healthcare, and infrastructure, making him a popular figure in the state. He came with his blueprint of Oyo State Roadmap for Accelerated Development to revamp the economy. In the most recent elections, he secured a second term, continuing his agenda of development and reform with his Oyo State Roadmap for Sustainable Development which he promised to handover to his successor. His victory further solidified his influence in Oyo State politics and set the stage for the intense succession battle that is expected in 2027.
One of the major factors that will shape the 2027 elections is the legacy of Governor Seyi Makinde. Since assuming office, Makinde has earned a reputation as a people-oriented leader, with a premium focus on infrastructure development, education, and healthcare. His policies and projects, which have been based on data, science and logic, have earned him popularity among the masses. Safe to say that they have also set a high bar for his potential successors. Whoever emerges as the next governor will have to contend with the expectations set by Makinde’s administration.
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As the countdown to 2027 begins, several names are being mentioned as potential contenders for the governorship post. Within the ruling PDP and the opposition APC, there are already murmurs about possible successors. Some of the names being speculated include the incumbent loyal deputy governor Bayo Lawal, Senator Teslim Folarin, the 2023 APC guber candidate and a three-term Oyo Central senator, Adebayo Adelabu, a former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the 2019 APC guber candidate and current Minister of Power, Sen. Fatai Buhari, the current Oyo North Senator, Hon. Stanley Olajide Odidi-omo, the current MHR Ibadan SW/NW constituency, Rt.Hon. Debo Ogundoyin, the current speaker of the Oyo House of Assembly, Engr. Joseph Tegbe, the 2023 PDP Oyo South Senatorial candidate, Engr. Dotun Sanusi, the owner of Ilaji Resorts and a stanch PDP chieftain, amongst others.
READ HERE: Oyo 2027: Seyi Makinde hints on Preferred Successor
As Oyo State looks ahead to 2027, the battle for the governorship is expected to be fierce. With Governor Seyi Makinde completing his tenure, the race to succeed him will be influenced by various factors, including party dynamics, political alliances, and the candidates’ ability to connect with the electorate. The history of gubernatorial elections in the state shows that Oyo’s political landscape is always evolving, and the 2027 elections will likely continue this tradition. For the people of Oyo State, the outcome of the election will have significant implications for the state’s future, and the contenders will have to navigate a complex political terrain to emerge victorious. By 2027, time will tell.
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